When Swamp Rats Are Dirty Rats

The revelation of sexual misconduct by Hollywood's Harvey Weinstein has transitioned to the District of Calamity.  Accusations of sexual impropriety threatens to swing two Senate seats and effect the balance of power on Capitol Hill.

Much has been made about  allegations of skivvy conduct by Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore (R-AL).  These accusations stem from conduct nearly four decades ago that were unreported to authorities, but came to light in the closing days of a special election to fill the seat vacated by now Trump Administration Attorney General Jeff Sessions.  The alluvia of allegations sound bad, but are past the statute of limitations, based she-said-he-said allegations with little to no corroborating evidence and relies upon the court of public opinion. 

From a political standpoint, Democrats are anxious to make Roy Moore a poster child for Republicans in 2018 and use the hermaneutic that Republicans condone sexual harassment as a cudgel to impeach President Donald Trump if Democrats regain the House of Representatives.  In the near term, the muck about Moore put the White House in a box.  On the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, establishment Republicans did not like a loose cannon like Judge Moore to be in the Senate chambers, when it endangers the clubby atmosphere of the Upper Chamber and he could help shake up the leadership.  So many GOP party loyalists were quick to condemn Moore for the alleged but unproven misconduct.

There are concerns that Republicans might lose this previously considered "safe" seat, as Moore is polling with a double digit deficit after these allegations have been publicized.  Since candidate Moore refuses to step aside due to this scandal, the DC GOP suggested writing in another Republican. Apparently, this did not test well and was dropped.  After a careful reading of the Alabama state statutes, centrist Republican Hugh Hewitt claims that the problem could go away if   Senator Luke Strange (R-AL) resigned, creating a new vacancy which would cancel the shaky December 12th election, and Governor Kay Ivey (R-AL) could appoint another caretaker Senator until the next general election (in November 2018).  Considering the shaky ground Jeff Sessions is in at the Department of Justice, it is possible that Sessions be appointed back to his own seat.

[L] Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) attending [R] Senator Luther Strange (R-AL) swearing in

Recently, after a pleasant Sunday brunch, we chatted about the troubling news about Roy Moore. As the topic expanded to include sexual harassment by elected officials, two ardent feminists insisted that Congress needed to do something about it and make offenders on Capitol Hill as accountable as the rest of us.  I asked who were their bosses.  The obvious answer was the people.  I maintained that voters get to fire their elected officials periodically and they should decide rather than an insider committee.  That viewpoint was not well received.

Well, it seems that when Congress pushed to make the same rules apply to them as their constituents, there were a few quirks.  Regarding charges of sexual harassment with members of staffers, there is 30 day waiting period before pressing charges.  In addition, the victim making the accusation must undergo mandatory counseling.  That sounds munificent, except the counseling comes from the employer whom someone is accusing.  It would seem that it could be made clear to accusers that going public would not be in anyone's best interests.   If I recall correctly, John Batchelor's news-maker interview indicated that this system has paid out $15 million since its advent in the 105th Congress with nary a word making the press.

Congressional Sexual Misconduct payout ledger

What took party hacks off their sexual harassment game plan was the revelation by a Los Angeles radio personality of Al Franken's inappropriate conduct during a USO mission to the Middle East in 2006, before he was elected as Senator from Minnesota.  The woman reported that she was supposed to do a skit written by Franken that involved a kiss and wanted to rehearse-- she demurred but eventually consented.  During the practice, she alleged that Franken put his tongue halfway down her throat and grabbed her head.  She immediately insisted "Don't do that again!", and she deflected his approach during the skit.

The problem with sexual conduct and Al Franken is about the contemporaneous  photographic evidence. The woman in question wanted to grab some rack time during the 36 hour military flight.  When she was asleep, Franken was seen with a coprophagic grin cupping at her breasts.  No doubt, Franken thought this was funny at the time (and probably a great way to get back at her).  Franken has been known to take outrageous photos for laughs (but the infamous Franken diaper photo was a fake).

Citizen Al Franken takes a picture with a sleeping beauty during a 2016 USO tour.

But this Al Franken moment  was captured on camera. Oops. And the accuser is Leeane Tweeden, a KABC-AM radio personality. Tweeden initially posted #MeToo, but she decided to come forth after hearing Congresswoman Speier's (D-CA 14th)  allegations that members on both side of the aisle have thrust sexual advances while in Congress.

Now this puts a kink into progressive partisans' plans. One of their prominent members stands accused. The public has been primed to always accept the word of victims.  In addition, there is photographic proof. This takes away from the rip the GOP as blanket sexual predator smear.  Rush Limbaugh points out that in this environment, Democrats will have to proverbially throw Senator Franken (D-MN) under the bus to not to seem hypocritical and prospectively use it against their ideological opponents. 

Franken publicly apologized to his victim, claiming that he thought that it was funny.  In addition, Franken submitted himself to scrutiny from his peers.  Maybe this gets it out of the headlines and it gets buried by the press.  If push comes to shove, Minnesota has a Democrat Governor Mark Dayton (D-MN), so Franken would undoubtedly be replaced by another Democrat. 

While justice is a noble pursuit, in this charged environment, the court of public opinion may well condemn non-guilty people just based on innuendo or unproven accusations which are promptly swept under the rug out of convenience.   The reform from the 105th Congress seems to allow members to slide, in a process intended to apply the peoples' law to Congress.  Although there are Ethics Committees to punish members egregious actions, I suspect that the ballot box is still the most efficacious way to punish when swamp rats act like dirty rats. 

The Legacy of Dirty Harry and the Reid Rule on Senate Filibusters

A legacy of former Senate Majority Leader  Harry Reid (D-NV) was the effective elimination of the confirmation filibuster.  

Under the Constitution, it is the Senate's duty to confirm Executive and Judicial Branch appointments.  Senate rules allowed for confirmations with mere majorities, but needed to obtain 60 votes to cut off debate (Cloture) and preclude a filibuster.  The Cloture vote was intended to prevent endless obstructionism while still giving the minority some say in the proceedings of the Upper Chamber of Congress.

Needing to get enough votes for cloture was an incentive for Republicans to select more moderate appointees which required Senate consent.  But such Senate niceties stopped political steamrolling by Majorities who wished to exercise their unadulterated will.

When the Obama Administration sought to pack the Court of Appeals for DC (aka the DC Circuit), which is the court of authority for regulatory bodies, it ran into trouble when its candidates might not have received the requisite support for a Cloture Vote.  So then Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, exercised "The Nuclear Option".  Exercising the Nuclear Option had been hotly debated in the preceding decade, but then Senate Majority Leader  Bill Frist (R-TN) opted not to circumvent tradition. 

Through Parliamentary legerdemain, Reid established a precedent in which he said that all judicial nominees, save Justices of the Supreme Court, would be considered on majority votes and did not have to pass the Cloture Vote threshold.  

The Reid Rule was great when one's party is in control of the Senate and the White House. But in 2017, President Donald Trump will occupy the White House and Republicans have a two seat majority in the Senate.  Incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer thinks that he can stymie the Trump Administration through the advice and consent clause as well as any Supreme Court nominations which do not represent progressive Democrat values.  However, Schumer may well rue the Reid rule legacy from Dirty Harry Reid. 

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Salem Radio host Hugh Hewitt had an informative colloquy on the Reid Rule.

 Republicans may not moderate their choices for positions which need to be confirmed by the Senate.  Despite Harry Reid's contention that the "Reid Rule" excludes Supreme Court nominees, it is contented that avoiding Cloture for a Supreme Court nomination would simply be a second application of the Reid Rule precedent.

Soft Spoken Presidential Hopeful Dr. Ben Carson Comes Out Swinging for the Campaign

Dr. Ben Carson, the retired chief of Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins University Hospital, has experienced a meteoric rise in conservative political circles since he upstaged President Barack Obama with a speech at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2013.  Carson’s mild mannered delivery of critiques of the Obama-nation coming from a faith filled physician with a compelling personal story stole the show.

Carson’s remarks before the National Prayer Breakfast, as well as CPAC and the Faith and Freedom Coalition spawned a “Draft Ben Carson” campaign, which raised nearly $12 million in a year. The “Run Ben Run” movement played upon peoples’ enthusiasm for a thoughtful prospective politician’s candidacy, but the unaffiliated Super PAC had dubious spending patterns, rolling most of the garnered donations back into the fundraising operation.

In early March 2015, Dr. Carson announced that he was forming an Exploratory Presidential Campaign Committee, which was all but a pro-forma announcement of a White House run.  Since then, Dr. Carson has made numerous media appearances which has inspired increased scrutiny.

Just after the Exploratory Committee announcement, Dr. Carson was drawn into a debate on CNN’s “New Day” with Chris Cuomo on whether homosexuality is a choice.  Carson commented that convicts  "go into prison straight -- and when they come out, they're gay. So, did something happen while they were in there? Ask yourself that question," This view syncs with Dr. Carson’s Seventh Day Adventist background and traditional marriage premises but did little to advance his candidacy.

Shortly afterwards, Carson backtracked on the statement saying "I realized that my choice of language does not reflect fully my heart on gay issues." Later, Carson declared that he would no longer speak about gay issues. But the damage had already been done.  Glenn Beck called this quote “the dumbest thing I’ve every heard”, which led Beck to declare that Carson’s candidacy was over just as it begun. That may have been hyperbole, but it was unwise for Dr. Carson to touch today’s third rail of politics in a wonton way. Carson squandered his wider introduction to the public by allowing himself to be painted a bigot for a peripheral point.

As part of the media barnstorming effort, Dr. Carson engaged in a thoughtful radio interview with Hugh Hewitt, a politically center right Salem Radio host who prides himself on not conducting ambush interviews.  Since the 2016 Presidential Campaign cycle may well pivot on foreign policy issues, Hewitt asked about Russian provocations and Western response.  When asked how NATO should respond if Putin made a move on the Baltic States would we go to war, Dr. Carson responded:  “Well, if we have them involved in NATO. We need to convince them to get involved in NATO and strengthen NATO”.

Hewitt later followed up on an inference that Carson did not seem aware that the Baltic States were part of NATO.  Dr. Carson rejoined: “Well, when you were saying Baltic state, I thought you were continuing our conversation about the former components of the Soviet Union. Obviously, there’s only three Baltic states.”  Unfortunately that clarification was as clear as mud as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia were former components of the Soviet Union and have some ethnic Russian speaking communities still residing there (which was the pretext for Russia effectively seizing Crimea and try to take the  Donbass).  Hewitt is known for in-depth interviews and going into the proverbial weeds to explore military issues.  Carson’s ignorant answers on defending our Baltic State NATO partners exposes a serious chink in his campaign armor and exhibited a lack a preparation.

Dr. Carson granted a long form interview with GQ magazine which was conducted at Armstrong Williams abode. The resulting piece from Jason Zengerle : “What if Sarah Palin were a brain surgeon?” frames Dr. Carson as the Tea Party’s great White House hope, while sliming him with the Alinsky inspired animus associated Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK).  The pull quote from Carson’s GQ interview involved Armstrong Williams egging on Ben Carson to opine on Obama’s optics.  The soft spoken Dr. Carson pronounced: “Like most psychopaths--that’s why they’re successful. That’s the way they look. They all look great...he's trying to sell what he thinks is not true. He’s sitting there saying, ‘These Americans are so stupid, I can tell them anything.’”

 Dr. Carson is a renowned neurosurgeon, not a psychiatrist, so taking a swipe at President Obama as a psychopath is off the mark.  Such a distant diagnosis from Charles Krauthammer (who was trained as a psychiatrist) seems reasonable, but from Dr. Carson it seems like a harsh characterization.  Part of Carson’s political charm is his mild mannered air of authority.  Being bombastic by characterizing the Obama obsession with optics and fooling “idiotic” Americans sacrifices this strength.  Moreover, this pugilistic “psychopath” trope was nothing new and unlikely to garner much new support.

Ben Carson has proudly declared: “I'm not a politician and that I never intend to become a politician. Even if I'm elected to office, I'm not going to be a politician because they tend to do things that are politically expedient. And I'm not trying to do things that are politically correct.”  In this day and age, not being considered a Beltway Establishment politician is an advantage to base voters who tire of political lies and political correctness.

However Dr. Carson is making plenty of rookie mistakes in on the political field. Allowing a Draft movement to exploit donations which never really make it to the actual campaign may dismay donors. Opining on hot button issues like homosexuality without successfully connecting it to preserving traditional marriage, which should really be an ancillary campaign issue in the first place.  Taking partisan pot shots like labeling the incumbent a psychopath which mars his soft spoken demeanor and popular appeal. Giving extensive access to media outlets like CNN and GQ on the proto campaign roll out which would play gotcha journalism.  Then there is the sin of going on friendly media like Hugh Hewitt unprepared, exposing a key weakness of the candidacy, namely foreign policy chops.

Dr. Carson was no stranger to making controversial statements, such as his interview with conservative radio firebrand Mark Levin in which an animated Dr. Carson called white liberals the worst type of racists for putting blacks in a box.



That perspective may be provocative and perspicacious as a pundit, but it sounds like another thing altogether on the campaign trail, especially with spin coming from other campaigns' opposition research laundered through the compliant press.

 As Dr. Carson continues to move closer to declaring his candidacy for the Republican Presidential nomination, he has come out swinging for the fences.  Unfortunately, he seems to be off balance for some of the pitches and creating lots of wind.  To mix sports analogies, the off balance stance on the campaign hustings makes him prone for sucker punches from the Lamestream Media.

Dr. Carson could make great contributions to shaping the campaign conversation in the 2016 Cycle.  His tremendous personal story shatters the liberal labeling of Republicans as the party for old white men.  Dr. Carson’s faith history underscores a potential appeal to evangelical voters, which would be key to victory in the Iowa Caucuses.  As a physician, he would be given great credence for critiquing Obamacare.   So Dr. Carson should eschew some of his ardor against being a politician and get good advice which best represents his brand as a thoughtful outsider who will not abandon promises because it is politically expedient.

Backroom Blunders of the Debt Ceiling Donnybrook

During a breakfast at the Capitol Hill Club in which the House Majority Caucus spent a half hour  strategized about fundraising procedures to restore recently cut benefits for military veterans with the debt ceiling vote. But it became clear to House Speaker Rep. John Boehner (R-OH 8th) that he would not have the votes to pass the Leadership's initial debt ceiling deal with just GOP votes.

So instead of linking the military cuts with the debt ceiling, Speaker Boehner  opted to put forth a clean debt ceiling through 2015 for a vote. To avoid adding to the deficit, this plan pretends to apply cuts in the eleventh year of a ten year budget, which is fictitious, as the cuts will never happen and prior Congresses can not bind future Congresses.

Boehner's modest proposal did not seem warmly received, hence his "I'm getting this monkey off your back and you're not going to even clap" quip.  Afterwards, the Speaker received a polite golf clap.

In order for a clean debt ceiling to be voted upon, the House Majority violated the informal "Hastert Rule" where legislation needed to get a majority of the majority's vote.  In the  221-201 clean debt ceiling vote, it seemed that most of the Republican votes came from House Leadership, including Speaker Boehner, House Majority Leader Rep.  Eric Cantor (R-VA 7th), House Majority Whip Rep. Kevin McCarthy R-CA 23rd) and most Republican Committee Chairmen, save House Budget Chair Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI 1st), House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA 5th),  GOP Policy Chair Rep. James Lankford (R-OK 5th) and House Majority Transition Chair Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR 2nd).  It seems that the Cocktail Party was keen on keeping power quietly and threw in with the Democrats.

While the House's clean debt ceiling vote may be characterized as a rare instance of bipartisanship by the Lamestream Media, the move was not well received among conservative activists and veterans.

The House's clean debt ceiling vote was characterized as "complete capitulation" by Tea Party Patriots co-founder Jenny Beth Martin. Moreover, failing to fix the military retirees cut was a call to arms by Hugh Hewitt and other veterans supporters.

So before the House adjourned for the Washington's Birthday recess (often mistakenly referred to as President's Day), House Leadership scrambled to vote on a Veterans' COLA fix.  Since the legislation had not gone through regular committee process, the legislation needed to earn two thirds majority vote on the Suspension calendar.  While top House Democrats signaled they they would oppose the fix, the bill easily passed the House in a 326-90 vote.   Then the House went into recess for ten days, which meant that the Senate would either approve their versions of the clean debt ceiling and veterans' COLA or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) would have to explain why he let the US "default" and why he wants veterans to suffer.

However, there may not be a quick and quiet way to placate the politicos. According to Mark Levin, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was willing to pass a clean debt ceiling on a simple majority vote.  such a process would allow for Congressional kabuki theater.  The Senate has 55 Democrat votes Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is a self-described democratic socialist and Senator Angus King is a Maine Independent yet both caucus with the Majority Senate Democrats. Several Democrats, however, have tough re-election campaigns in Republican leaning states.  So a majority vote allows a few of them to feign being fiscal hawks and the bill passes 51-49.

Once again, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) will not countenance the Congressional two step.  Sen. Cruz questions the future cuts in the Clean Debt Ceiling bill and will require cloture (requiring 60 votes) to cut off debate.  The Byrd rule for simple majorities on budget bills does not apply to the debt ceiling.  Essentially, Sen. Cruz is threatening to filibuster the debt ceiling.

This gets complicated.  A significant snowstorm is threatening to hit Washington Wednesday evening, which could ground Senators from doing their "In District Work Sessions".  But if changes are made to the Clean Debt Ceiling bill, the House is on recess so the alleged debt ceiling deadline would be missed and supposedly the US would go into default.  While this may be as fictitious as the monument closures during the government shutdown, it would give the financial markets jitters and look quite bad in an election year. 

The pressure will be placed on Senator Cruz not to require a Cloture vote.  Aside from his principles, Senator Cruz may be motivated to stand tall for a prospective 2016 Presidential run.  But if a filibuster is engaged,  expect the junior Senator from Texas to be villified by the press and partisans for holding up progress just as Cruz was in September 2013 over Obamacare fixes quasi filibuster. 

According to Senator Lindsey Graham's two calls to Hugh Hewitt, it is 99% certain that the Senate will bring the House passed Veterans' COLA fix to the floor and passed. It is only $6 billion over ten years and should not be an onerous fix. But when can the revenue enhancement be hidden?

It is lamentable that many of the problems in Washington have a causal nexus with the go-along-to-get-alone attitudes of elites in the Cocktail Party.  Problems are rarely really addressed aside from short burst of rhetoric for the supposed rubes.  So insisting that real cuts are made instead of the fiction of future cuts which will never happen will be the cause celebre of the Left and the Cocktail Party.

No wonder conservatives are fighting for new leadership.

h/t: William Warren

An Animated G.K. Chesterton on Rubbish

It is amazing how prescient that Chesterton sounds in the District of Calamity (sic) during the Twenty First Century.

Fiscal Cliff Notes

In one month, unless Congress and the President can agree upon a solution, sequestration will occur which will automatically make an across the board 10% budgetary reduction. In the District of Calamity, this willy-nilly cost cutting is know as going  over the fiscal cliff.


As most Americans are in the Christmas preparation rush and President Obama is set to rush off to a 20 day $4 million holiday in Christmas Vacation in Hawaii, it does not seem that the calamitous effects if the Lame Duck Congress is unable to craft a compromise budget are widely understood. So here are some fiscal cliff notes:



 President Obama offered an idea to allegedly avoid the sequestration crisis:

It is worth noting that all of the savings which the White House offers are vague and in the future.  So what do conservatives think of this "plan"?  Think of Charlie Brown trying to placekick the football with a conniving center like Lucy.





Maybe we should not take Mr. Obama's first proffered plan seriously.  Charitably, it might be an opening bid.  Maybe Mr. Obama's pronouncement during the debate the sequestration will not happen alludes to political omnipotence.  More likely, President Obama is posturing and forcing the fiscal cliff is a strategy to blame Republicans either for the resulting taxes or for the wrecked economy when we go over the fiscal cliff.  Then the White House can look "reasonable" by trimming their outrageous opening offer by a third and still blame what Mr. Obama has termed "the enemy".

Well, President Obama's proposal was not taken too seriously on Capitol Hill.  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) laughed at Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner when the White House's "Modest Proposal" was presented last week. McConnell opined that Obama made an outlandish proposal that should not be taken seriously and was a step backwards.  Moreover, the Senate Republican leader proclaimed:  "President Obama can't get everything that he wants. Those days are over."

President Obama played Campaigner-in-Chief by pitching his opening offer at a toy factory near Philadelphia, comparing uncooperative Republicans who were Scrooges and going to give middle class folks lumps of coal in their stockings.  The urging the wealthy to pay "their fair share" class warfare is rich, as there is no way that the top 2% of taxpayers will be able to cover the $166 billion tax hike in 2013.

Some have suggested that Republicans should take President Obama at face value and then vote "present" on his outrageous offer.  Of course, there are not enough Democrat votes to ensure passage in the House, but much like the Obamacare bill, a handful of squish Congressmen can be "bought off". A better tact might be to take Guy Benson's suggestion and pass the Simpson-Bowles bi-partisan deficit reduction plan, which the Obama Administration commissioned and was hailed by an adoring Lamestream Media and then promptly abandoned.  But unless Congress and the President get serious about avoiding the fiscal cliff, it might be Thelma and Louise time.



h/t: A.F. Branco